Air Leaking Out of Hillary's Bag According to Dick Morris
Kudos to Dick Morris:
Hillary is dying a slow death
THE DEMOCRATS:
‘ABH’ GAINS (ANYBODY BUT HILLARY)
Gore is up (a lot).
Edwards is up (a lot).
Obama is up (a little)….and Hillary is down.(a little)
That’s the message of the latest Gallup poll concluded over the weekend.
Since February, Hillary Clinton’s favorability has dropped from 82% to 80% to 74% while Edwards’ rose by ten points, driven by his classy performance in the face of Elizabeth’s illness. At the same time, Gores jumped by twelve points, propelled by his Oscar and anti-global warming campaign. Obama stayed fairly constant.
Here’s what’s happening:
Democratic Presidential Candidates’ Favorability
% Favorable
Feb 11 March 4 March 25
Clinton 82% 80% 74%
Obama 64 68 65
Gore 72 78 84
Edwards 61 63 71
In addition, Hillary’s lead over Obama has fallen since February from 48-23 to 35-22. Gore gets 17% and Edwards is at 14%.
Preference For Democratic Nomination
Feb 11 March 4 March 25
Clinton 40% 36% 35%
Obama 21 22 22
Gore 14 18 17
Edwards 13 9 14
Hillary had 40% of the vote in February, and she’s slowly but steadily declined since then. While Hillary’s vote share only dropped by a point during March, her simultaneous eight point drop in favorability indicates that more bad news may be on the way for her. She’s not wearing well and she seems to have difficulty moving up and out of her loyal base.
HILLARY V. OBAMA:
DEMOGRAPHICS vs. PERSONALITY
There is a major distinction in the basis for voter support for Hillary vs. Obama.
Hillary Clinton draws voters based on who they are.
Obama draws voters based on who he is.
That’s a big difference!
Hillary has a distinct demographic base while Obama has a more traditional political one.
The former first lady’s vote is anchored in her amazingly strong base of support among younger women, while Obama’s support is rooted in his image among all voters. Both as a blessing and a curse, this phenomenon makes Hillary’s vote far more stable – unlikely to go up or down – than Obama’s.
Young women love Hillary and provide huge support for her. The extent of her dependence on this gender gap was illustrated graphically when Gallup combined its samples for January, February, and March to give it a sufficient number of respondents so as to make distinctions based on age and gender statistically significant.
The results are startling. Hillary draws about as many men as women over the age of fifty. But among younger voters, Hillary is the choice of 43% of women who are under fifty, but of only 27% of the men in the same age group.
HILLARY’S AGE AND GENDER GAP
Percent voting for Hillary
Men Women
Under 50 27% 43%
Over 50 34% 35%
Source: Gallup Poll
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=26950
Unfortunately, Gallup did not analyze Hillary’s vote based on the marital status of the respondents. Had they done so, they likely would have found an even greater disparity between married and single women than it found between younger and older female voters. Most surveys show no difference between married men and single men in their voting habits.
But the point remains: Hillary’s vote is very dependent on demographics, while Obama’s is based on himself.
Whether that will ultimately help or hurt her remains to be seen.
We’ll be watching to see how that plays out.
HARRIS POLL: 50% WOULD NEVER VOTE FOR HILLARY
A Harris poll conducted between March 6-14, 2007 found more bad news for Hillary: Half of all of the adult respondents said that they would NEVER vote for her. Not only that, but 21% of the Democrats felt the same way.
More important – 48% of the Independents also said that they would never vote for her.
HILLARY FLIP-FLOPS AGAIN ON IRAQ
When she returned from Iraq this winter, she said that she was not going to vote for a cutoff of funding for the war....
....but now she’s voted for the Senate version of the House bill to cut off funding for the war if troops are not out by March 08.
She said, at the same time, that she opposed a deadline for withdrawal....
...But the bill proposes just such a deadline.
She said, last week in a NY Times interview, that she would keep troops in Iraq for intelligence, training, and logistical support, air support, interdiction of Iranian infiltration, and pursuit of al Qaeda....
...But the bill just specifies intelligence, training, and air support, not the other missions.
Talk about having your cake and eating it too.
‘ABH’ GAINS (ANYBODY BUT HILLARY)
Gore is up (a lot).
Edwards is up (a lot).
Obama is up (a little)….and Hillary is down.(a little)
That’s the message of the latest Gallup poll concluded over the weekend.
Since February, Hillary Clinton’s favorability has dropped from 82% to 80% to 74% while Edwards’ rose by ten points, driven by his classy performance in the face of Elizabeth’s illness. At the same time, Gores jumped by twelve points, propelled by his Oscar and anti-global warming campaign. Obama stayed fairly constant.
Here’s what’s happening:
Democratic Presidential Candidates’ Favorability
% Favorable
Feb 11 March 4 March 25
Clinton 82% 80% 74%
Obama 64 68 65
Gore 72 78 84
Edwards 61 63 71
In addition, Hillary’s lead over Obama has fallen since February from 48-23 to 35-22. Gore gets 17% and Edwards is at 14%.
Preference For Democratic Nomination
Feb 11 March 4 March 25
Clinton 40% 36% 35%
Obama 21 22 22
Gore 14 18 17
Edwards 13 9 14
Hillary had 40% of the vote in February, and she’s slowly but steadily declined since then. While Hillary’s vote share only dropped by a point during March, her simultaneous eight point drop in favorability indicates that more bad news may be on the way for her. She’s not wearing well and she seems to have difficulty moving up and out of her loyal base.
HILLARY V. OBAMA:
DEMOGRAPHICS vs. PERSONALITY
There is a major distinction in the basis for voter support for Hillary vs. Obama.
Hillary Clinton draws voters based on who they are.
Obama draws voters based on who he is.
That’s a big difference!
Hillary has a distinct demographic base while Obama has a more traditional political one.
The former first lady’s vote is anchored in her amazingly strong base of support among younger women, while Obama’s support is rooted in his image among all voters. Both as a blessing and a curse, this phenomenon makes Hillary’s vote far more stable – unlikely to go up or down – than Obama’s.
Young women love Hillary and provide huge support for her. The extent of her dependence on this gender gap was illustrated graphically when Gallup combined its samples for January, February, and March to give it a sufficient number of respondents so as to make distinctions based on age and gender statistically significant.
The results are startling. Hillary draws about as many men as women over the age of fifty. But among younger voters, Hillary is the choice of 43% of women who are under fifty, but of only 27% of the men in the same age group.
HILLARY’S AGE AND GENDER GAP
Percent voting for Hillary
Men Women
Under 50 27% 43%
Over 50 34% 35%
Source: Gallup Poll
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=26950
Unfortunately, Gallup did not analyze Hillary’s vote based on the marital status of the respondents. Had they done so, they likely would have found an even greater disparity between married and single women than it found between younger and older female voters. Most surveys show no difference between married men and single men in their voting habits.
But the point remains: Hillary’s vote is very dependent on demographics, while Obama’s is based on himself.
Whether that will ultimately help or hurt her remains to be seen.
We’ll be watching to see how that plays out.
HARRIS POLL: 50% WOULD NEVER VOTE FOR HILLARY
A Harris poll conducted between March 6-14, 2007 found more bad news for Hillary: Half of all of the adult respondents said that they would NEVER vote for her. Not only that, but 21% of the Democrats felt the same way.
More important – 48% of the Independents also said that they would never vote for her.
HILLARY FLIP-FLOPS AGAIN ON IRAQ
When she returned from Iraq this winter, she said that she was not going to vote for a cutoff of funding for the war....
....but now she’s voted for the Senate version of the House bill to cut off funding for the war if troops are not out by March 08.
She said, at the same time, that she opposed a deadline for withdrawal....
...But the bill proposes just such a deadline.
She said, last week in a NY Times interview, that she would keep troops in Iraq for intelligence, training, and logistical support, air support, interdiction of Iranian infiltration, and pursuit of al Qaeda....
...But the bill just specifies intelligence, training, and air support, not the other missions.
Talk about having your cake and eating it too.
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